The comming of Bloody October: Airline edition.

"Grindintosecond" (Grindintosecond) 07/30/2020 at 12:55 • Filed to: None

7

35

The CARES act spelled out that any airline taking money to sustain itself can not furlough until October. They took the money, and in October they will fill the streets with thousands of unemployed airline pilots, many of whom have no alternate skills. There is a reason that half of all pilots I have ever worked with or met have worked roofing jobs in their past.

Supposedly, any airline that has historically furloughed 20% deep into their pilot staffing has never recovered as its original self. United was bought by Continental but kept the name. (They like to say merged) US Air cut 50% deep and was bought up by American. Delta and Northwest got married. Today, it is about to happen again. Differences? Well, this could be even worse.

Spirit Airlines, who does not block off any seats to at least try and prevent the spread (although they do take your temperature while boarding) just warned nearly 28% of its pilots they will most likely be furloughed come October. They are also burning $100m per month in cash. That is just an example but the talk on the street is United is about to furlough pilots who were hired as far back as 2006. They are downgrading many captains to First-Officers and some of them were hired back in 2000. United was also overstaffed by 6,000 pilots in May because their International work was at least half of its business. Delta, due to parking so much of its international fleet, is contractually bound to train those long haul pilots to fly the domestic planes. That totals 7,000 training events they must pay for at $20-30k a pop. $150m minimum.

“I know you have been in your own corner office for the last fifteen years and you have actually done a fantastic job, but we’re gonna need you to move into the cubicle in the middle of the room. We also fired your secretary. And we changed to Folgers in the break room, which is now in the bathroom.”

Delta has stated they intend to be a much smaller airline after this is all over. Also meaning they are cutting extra staff. Just in pilots alone, the street is looking to suddenly feel the feet of 30,000 airline pilots; and that is just from the major airlines. Regionals have already started cutting when they can. Some have just gone out of business altogether back in March. Those numbers are just pilots alone.

Let us talk about dispatchers, maintenance techs, gate agents, flight attendants who themselves will probably number 60-75 thousand. All together way over 100,000 airline jobs will start getting cut in October.

I’m feeling lucky. I’m very glad I work for who I work for, but, I am taking no chances. Refinancing the house with a cash-out option to sit on it, and saving what I can until things look better in the spring. Hitting credit cards and savings right away is actually the worst thing one can do, but, for the majority of America, that is all they have to work with. Hopefully, things look better by spring but even then, the industry front lawn won’t look too good. Lotsa dog poop in it I’m predicting.

This will be the big news in October aside from the elections and whatever else is leadership tweeted. But it is coming and is not pretty. If you are in the industry, start getting the next job squared away to hold you over, or go get that drone certificate and try to make it work out.

That is what I’m hearing and that is my view from the window up high.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 13:04

0

Counter-Point: Delta in their prime

https://www.inc.com/chris-matyszczyk/delta-air-lines-just-revealed-its-making-a-lot-of-money-from-people-youd-never-expect-delta-never-expected-it-either.html

For Sweden > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 13:05

0

Is the Air Force still hiring drone pilots?

Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 13:05

0

The economic impact of this will not be pretty, especially here in Atlanta. Thank you for a nuanced and non political take on this. Things are going to continue to hurt. 

DipodomysDeserti > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 13:06

4

I was previously informed on Oppo that our economy was recovering because rich people in Texas were buying toys.

This doesn’t seem to be the case.

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 13:08

5

Why can’t they just learn to code?

/s

Grindintosecond > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 07/30/2020 at 13:08

0

Southwest at one point madew 50% of it’s profit from non-airline activities. They all have something going on the side, but when the International work of Delta was instantly zero and they parked 700 widebodies, not even the outside revenue can float that.

Grindintosecond > For Sweden 07/30/2020 at 13:09

0

I would assume so. better enlist! They do not like licensed pilots however, because of training issues. But, doesn’t hurt to ask.

Grindintosecond > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 07/30/2020 at 13:11

2

Lol. I tried to teach my father in law to set up his wifi.

It was not a very positive experience.

ranwhenparked > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 13:14

1

The airline industry will not recover until domestic and international quarantine requirements and other travel restrictions are eliminated or substantially eased - and until major events and attractions are open and happening again. In other words, probably never, since the virus is most likely endemic now, and will always surge back whenever restrictions are removed.

Grindintosecond > DipodomysDeserti 07/30/2020 at 13:15

4

Rich people will always buy toys until it becomes wholly in bad form. such as when Dusenberg had to make smaller cars in the 30's becuase the rich were feeling too rich...

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 13:16

0

Yeah, my bitch on Delta during that era was

“Gee, I have four million miles on pretty much everybody, closing in on a million on DL... I paid full fare for the ticket, will fly 120,000 miles this year on DL.... and you have FIRST CLASS full of people who never fly but paid too much to carry your credit card? I’m completely confused.”

MKULTRA1982(ConCrustyBrick) > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 13:20

0

“You are overqualified to fly military missions”

..... What?

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 13:20

1

SWA can play this smart and take over significant market share from the other majors. The flip side is they will have to start flying regional jets. Maybe even some “god forbid” airbus.

I don’t envy your position. I’m also looking at reduced tax revenue for public utilities all but completely stooping infrastructure projects starting next year . I’m saving a big rainy day fund for the inevitable slow down. I survived the last recession pretty well but who the hell knows how this one is going to pan out.

Sovande > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 13:21

0

That sounds pretty grim. I’m not particularly skilled at anything so I can’t imagine the para digm shift that would be felt going from highly skilled airplane pilot with 1000's of hours of safe flying experience to landscaper . Sounds like you’ll be okay though.

I work for a company based out of DC and most of our work is city contracts and city maintenance contracts for schools.  The way things are going, there is a real chance the city will shut down again and close construction sites.  That would suspend a major revenue stream and I am not sure we have the backlog to pivot to more private work, we just aren’t set up to pursue it correctly right now.  It’s definitely stressful.  

sony1492 > DipodomysDeserti 07/30/2020 at 13:22

8

For Sweden > DipodomysDeserti 07/30/2020 at 13:22

1

I'm not sure if Netjets is hiring yet 

For Sweden > MKULTRA1982(ConCrustyBrick) 07/30/2020 at 13:23

0

That's why the USAF does not have warrant officers. If you are too smart, you need to switch to another service.

Full of the sound of the Gran Fury, signifying nothing. > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 13:25

0

I believe that the US Airways/American merger was much like the CO/UA merger, whereby the former essentially took over the latter and took the more familiar name; Doug Parker, and others in leadership positions at AA, are basically the same folks from way back in the America West days and have been moving up, merger-by-merger. I’m a victim of the US/AA merger, having worked for a company that received a huge influx of new business when AA filed for bankruptcy; not surprisingly, most of that business was lost when US took over and brought formerly outsourced services in-house.

It’s funny - I have great fondness for the airline industry, yet I hate t he passenger experience and really don’t want to work in this industry again.

Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 07/30/2020 at 13:26

2

Message from Twitter: You are Banned #nochill

Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 13:39

0

Yeah, there are many parts of the industry I’m associated with that are seriously hurting with regards to travel restrictions both abroad and domestic operations . Enough that companies are not only shifting short term plans but the longer ones as well in having to shore up the coffers.

A lot of our industry relies on relatively lax international air travel, now it’s like we’ve gone back a century, at least back then the crew was more ‘ local’. It’s been causing all sorts of gross violations with contracts, from wages not being paid to vacations.

I definitely held the thought around Mar-Apr. If your related around travel and tourism, update your resume in this lockdown or start looking at a side gig, this isn’t going to be “a couple  months” deal.

Grindintosecond > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 07/30/2020 at 13:42

3

The 737 is better. Cost per seat mile is 6cents, Airbus a few decimals more, and the e1 70 rj is 10 cents. Regional jets cost more to run. The reason they’re used is to shovel people into hubs with frequency. Whereas SWA just fills the plane, gets way better utilization and repeats.

On the market share prediction , you are more right than you know....

MrSnrub > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 07/30/2020 at 13:44

2

I was expecting it to be car loans honestly

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > MrSnrub 07/30/2020 at 13:50

1

Heh.

“I’ll the $1000 Clue in ‘House of Cards’, Alex”

Mid Engine > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 14:16

2

It’s unclear which airlines will remain in business, however, it’s a good time for them to re-think how they run their airlines. Air travel is an absolute miserable experience, when your customers cringe thinking about using your service you’re doing things wrong.  Source: I’ve flown 1.2 million miles  

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 14:34

0

I might know a guy who is a captain at an airline that has very colorful livery.

Grindintosecond > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 07/30/2020 at 15:47

1

I wonder if I sat next to him once...

Grindintosecond > Mid Engine 07/30/2020 at 15:49

0

When regulated routes were a thing, service was awesome because they could afford to give that. Read a nice copy of Hard Landings. It explains where the money went and why service was cut.

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 15:51

0

IDK graduate from UND, flies out of Denver, originally from Montana and lives in Olympia. VERY IRISH LAST NAME.

AlfaCorse > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 18:23

0

How do you figure regional jets cost more to run? In the case of E170, their block hour cost is about half of a 737-800. I think you mean the 737 could potentially make more profit because the cost per seat mile is less, but that profit potential is only there if you can fill those extra seats at a normal ticket price . If they fly a route that has only has demand for 75 seats per flight at a normal fare, how would it make sense to use a 737?

SmugAardvark > Grindintosecond 07/30/2020 at 18:47

0

And it trickles down even further. Airports and people who work at them are also feeling the stress. Concession workers, shuttle bus drivers, parking lot attendants, ramp agents (who are often contacted and thus not actually employed directly by the airlines), grounds crews, maintenance workers, planners, developers, operations crews, and so on. Thankfully, a lot of those jobs have skills that translate elsewhere. But I have multiple colleagues whose entire careers have revolved around airport-centric work (a couple of them are even pilots, but forget moving into that as a career right now).

With steep cutbacks to airlines, that means less flights. Less flights means less revenue, which means less employees.

I’m not going to lie, I’m a little bit nervous myself. Thankfully, I have a fallback career in emergency EMS/Fire dispatch that I left for airport work a few years back. I don’t want to go back to that, but I also don’t want to be homeless and starving if my savings dries up.

Grindintosecond > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 07/31/2020 at 12:28

0

I see 40-50 different guys a year. It is likely though.

Grindintosecond > AlfaCorse 07/31/2020 at 12:30

0

It is the cost per air seat mile metric. Everytrhing it costs to run divided by number of seats available equals the true cost. So you sell tickets at prices to cover that variable based on expected capacity fill. So if you fill the plane, you better make money. Given the 175 holds 76-80 seats, its about 110 cents per mile per seat to operate. A 737 with 140+ seats is about 6. Meaning if you fill the planes, the regional costs more to run.

A route with only 75 seat demand wont be run unless its once a day and with one plane. something that a 737 operator wont touch even in bad times. There is a bigger picture of market share to be had. Providing options will get traffic. And thats stuff way above my business knowlege, but books have been written on the subject. Either way, SWA will not downsize the jet. They grew through 9/11, 08-09, will do so again and through every recession theyve grown where others shrunk every time. Never went regional. Besides, contract regional work is where the majors screwed up. They paid a middle man who takes profit from the work. eliminating the middle man equals profit.

AlfaCorse > Grindintosecond 07/31/2020 at 12:52

0

If you could fill both size planes in the same market, then the airline flying the regional jet is flying the wrong aircraft type on that route, or are using a smaller type to be able to fly more frequencies on a route . The regional jets are used in markets where they wouldn’t be able to fill a 737 sized airplane profitably , OR to be able to fly more frequencies profitably . I think in this market the regional jets will still get plenty of flying because the number of people flying is down. Many routes that previously would have supported 737/a320 are now flying on regional jets for this reason. You see the same thing with widebody aircraft, many airlines are keeping their largest wide bodies grounded in favor of smaller widebodies. That even puts Southwest at a disadvantage in certain markets because they will have to reduce frequencies in order to fill their comparatively larger aircraft than their regional jet competitors.

Grindintosecond > AlfaCorse 07/31/2020 at 14:21

1

Southwests 47 straight years of profitability, 49 years in business, and zero bankruptcies disagrees with you. Yes yes theyre not profitable this year, true, but I have to say that they know what they are doing a lot better than any airline in the world.

AlfaCorse > Grindintosecond 07/31/2020 at 14:49

0

I’m not disagreeing with any of that, Southwest has indeed been doing well historically. We have just begun this new chapter in aviation that is unprecedented and a lot is still unknown how things will play out. They are many advantages and disadvantages to having one basic type in their fleet. I was pointing out a disadvantage in that they cannot down gauge below 737-700. That is a very real disadvantage in this time against competitors that can. Obviously they have many advantages also that will help them out, such as being focused on US domestic flying which is less hard hit than international flying.